China in 2020: economic and international prospects

The article considers the position of China on the international arena in the context of the pandemic of COVID-19 and the economic crisis of 2020. The goal of the article is to assess the changes of the international position of China in 2020, analyze the opportunities, risks, and threats in this context. The objectives of the article are to analyze the overall condition of China’s economy up to 2020, assess the influence of protectionist policies of Donald Trump regarding the economic position of China, analyze the success achieved by China in the realization of the “One belt — one road” initiative and difficulties encountered in this direction, assess the influence of the pandemic of COVID-19 on the alignment of forces on the international arena. In the context of the influence of the events of 2020 on the international position of China, the objectives of the article are to assess the results of the diplomatic rivalry between the USA and China and to assess the influence of the pandemic and the economic crisis on the economy of China, as well as opportunities and risks related to this. In the article, a point is made that in general in 2020 the economy of China is experiencing a number of long-term problems. First of all,
the problem of a considerable corporate debt. The trade war with the USA has exacerbated this unfavorable economic conjuncture by harming China’s export and strengthening the trend of a decline in China’s GDP growth that had existed for a long time, which in turn exacerbated the problem of a large corporate debt. The influence of the pandemic of COVID-19 and the 2020 economic crisis on the international position of China is controversial. On the one hand, the country has an opportunity via humanitarian help to ensure its position as a world leader. On the other hand, the political ambitions of China, directly related to the humanitarian help, risk to face a response of an international coalition, which is further exacerbated by the lack of flexibility of the Chinese diplomacy of “wolf warriors”. Under these circumstances China has apparently decided to take a risky path of confrontation with the West, which is demonstrated by the crisis in the South China Sea. From an economic perspective, 2020 also creates a rather problematic conjuncture for China. The fall of the demand for the Chinese export has seriously damaged the export-oriented economy of the country, which is exacerbated by a low demand for the domestic market. The long-lasting risk is the possibility of relocation of production chains by TNC away from China, the necessity of which was demonstrated by the events of 2020. Finally, a threat is posed by the problem of the debts of countries that participate in the “One belt — one road” initiative. In this context 2020 appears to be a challenge rather than an opportunity for China.

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