Prospects for the Euro-Atlantic integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the context of the division of society along ethnic lines

The late 1980s and early 1990s were a period of major changes in the modern history of Eastern Europe. The destabilization of the countries of the socialist camp and its subsequent dismantling led to the emergence of new pockets of instability in the region. This process was accompanied by the emergence and growth of an internal political crisis in post-socialist countries, which, in rare exceptions, could lead to the transition of the conflict stage from a latent phase to a hot one. The consequences of these conflicts continue to have a direct impact on the current situation in the former socialist countries of Europe. In this regard, the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina is particularly indicative. The interethnic conflict that took place in this region from 1992 to 1995 ended with the signing of the Dayton agreements, which prevented three years of bloodshed. However, it is worth noting that the countries of the Euro-Atlantic community had the following interest in signing these accords: to prevent the emergence of a new state in the post-Yugoslav space that would unite the Western Balkan nations and claim the role of a regional leader. Despite the freezing of the interethnic conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1995, at the present stage, Euro-Atlantic structures are striving to dismantle the Dayton architecture. The problem lies in the increased global tension, which intensifies the great-power rivalry in various regions of the world for influence. Bosnia and Herzegovina is no exception in this case. In the space of this state entity, a rivalry is unfolding between Moscow, which relies on the Republika Srpska, and Brussels, which relies on the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In connection with the intensification of the great-power confrontation in the Balkans at the present stage of the development of international relations, this article attempts to assess the likelihood of Euro-Atlantic integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina in conditions of ethnic division of society. In conducting the study, the authors relied on the theory of structuration by E. Giddens and structural realism, supplemented by the concept of J. Mearsheimer. As a working definition, «ethnos» is used in the interpretation of the Soviet ethnographer Yu.V. Bromley, supplemented by a characteristic indicating an increasing role of ethnicity as a tool used by political leaders in the struggle for power.

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